Caudal v Sporting Gijón II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Caudal 1–1 Sporting Gijón II SPORTING GIJÓN II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sporting Gijón II win~~38%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.770

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.761

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Gijón II win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sporting Gijón II was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
1′KICK-OFF Caudal v Sporting Gijón II
2′Much as we predicted: Sporting Gijón II was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–28–39
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sporting Gijón II win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Caudal 0–0 Sporting Gijón II
46′SECOND HALF Caudal 0–0 Sporting Gijón II
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Caudal 0–1 Sporting Gijón II
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sporting Gijón II win 31%)
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sporting Gijón II win 31%)
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sporting Gijón II win 31%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sporting Gijón II win 31%)
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sporting Gijón II win 31%)
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sporting Gijón II win 31%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Caudal 1–1 Sporting Gijón II
FTFULL TIME Caudal 1–1 Sporting Gijón II
FTCaudal 1–1 Sporting Gijón II · Sporting Gijón II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Caudal win33%

Draw28%

Sporting Gijón II win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Caudal

Sporting Gijón II

7Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sporting Gijón II	5	+5	13
7	Caudal	5	+2	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting gijón ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

38% The market33%

Us38%

~~Market~~33%

We make Sporting Gijón II a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sporting gijón ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caudal win	33%	38%	−5
Draw	28%	29%	0
Sporting Gijón II win	38%	33%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	51%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	30%	−7
Caudal or draw	62%	67%	−6
Caudal clean sheet	28%	–	–
Sporting Gijón II clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.6 10.4 7.0 3.1 1 9.5 13.2 8.0 3.5 2 5.9 7.4 4.7 2.0 3 2.4 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caudal down, Sporting Gijón II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caudal at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Gijón II away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Caudal, 1.28 for Sporting Gijón II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 12

~~Both scored~~4 of 12

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–0 CAU · CAU 0–0 SPO · SPO 3–1 CAU · CAU 3–2 SPO

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

CAUDAL

WWWLWD4–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 1–1

SPORTING GIJÓN II

DWWWWD0–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Covadonga	5	+10	13
2	Sporting Gijón II	5	+5	13
3	Mosconia	6	+7	12
4	Siero	6	+6	12
5	Condal	5	+6	11
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	5	+2	10
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Langreo	6	+1	8
10	Gijón Industrial	5	+2	7
11	Praviano	6	−2	5
12	San Martín	5	−5	5
13	Ceares	6	−4	4
14	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
15	Llanes	5	−6	3
16	Avilés Stadium	5	−7	3
17	Astur	5	−5	2
18	Andes	5	−7	1