Caudal v Avilés Stadium prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CaudalDrawAvilés Stadium

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Caudal 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caudal are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Caudal 68%, draw 22%, Avilés Stadium 10%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Caudal v Avilés StadiumBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Caudal win68%

Draw22%

Avilés Stadium win10%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caudal

Avilés Stadium

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
13	Avilés Stadium	7	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caudal winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Caudal a 68% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.5, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Caudal v Avilés Stadium~~1.85 – 0.53

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 7~~6 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caudal win	68%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Avilés Stadium win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Caudal or draw	90%	–	–
Caudal clean sheet	59%	–	–
Avilés Stadium clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.5%

0123450 10.2 4.5 1 16.5 9.5 2.4 2 15.5 8.1 2.2 3 9.6 5.0 4 4.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caudal down, Avilés Stadium across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caudal at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Avilés Stadium away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Caudal, 0.53 for Avilés Stadium. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~AVI 0–1 CAU · CAU 2–2 AVI · AVI 0–0 CAU · CAU 3–0 AVI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

CAUDAL

WLWDDD2–1 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

AVILÉS STADIUM

LWLLWD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting Gijón II	8	+10	20
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
3	Condal	7	+8	15
4	Mosconia	7	+3	12
5	Siero	8	+2	12
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11
11	Langreo	8	−2	9
12	San Martín	7	−3	9
13	Avilés Stadium	7	−6	7
14	L'Entregu	7	−7	5
15	Ceares	7	−5	4
16	Astur	7	−5	4
17	Llanes	8	−8	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2