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Avilés Stadium v Llanes

Avilés Stadium

2–1Full time

Llanes

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Avilés Stadium 2–1 Llanes LLANES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Llanes win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llanes win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Llanes 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
9′Little has changed for our model: Llanes 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 32–30–38
31′27′ and it is 1–0: Avilés Stadium have scored. 1–0 · 66–23–11
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 11% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
39′27′ and it is 1–0: Avilés Stadium have scored. 1–0 · 68–23–9
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 11% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 35% now
45′We said Llanes at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 70–22–8
45′HALF-TIME Avilés Stadium 1–0 Llanes
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 9% now
46′SECOND HALF Avilés Stadium 1–0 Llanes
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Avilés Stadium win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Llanes win 8%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Avilés Stadium win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Llanes win 8%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Avilés Stadium win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Llanes win 8%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Avilés Stadium win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Llanes win 8%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Avilés Stadium win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Llanes win 8%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Llanes win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Avilés Stadium win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Llanes win 8%)
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Avilés Stadium 2–0 Llanes
76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Llanes
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Avilés Stadium 2–1 Llanes
FTFULL TIME Avilés Stadium 2–1 Llanes
FTAvilés Stadium 2–1 Llanes · Llanes win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Avilés Stadium win33%

Draw29%

Llanes win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Avilés Stadium

Llanes

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Llanes	5	−6	3
16	Avilés Stadium	5	−7	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · llanes winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Llanes a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avilés Stadium win	33%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Llanes win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Avilés Stadium or draw	62%	–	–
Avilés Stadium clean sheet	30%	–	–
Llanes clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.8 11.3 7.2 3.0 1 10.2 13.5 7.8 3.2 2 6.0 7.1 4.3 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avilés Stadium down, Llanes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,593 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Avilés Stadium at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Llanes away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Avilés Stadium, 1.22 for Llanes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AVI 0–1 LLA · LLA 1–1 AVI · AVI 2–1 LLA · LLA 0–0 AVI

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

AVILÉS STADIUM

LLLWLL1–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

LLANES

LLLDDD0–1 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Covadonga	5	+10	13
2	Sporting Gijón II	5	+5	13
3	Mosconia	6	+7	12
4	Siero	6	+6	12
5	Condal	5	+6	11
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	5	+2	10
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Langreo	6	+1	8
10	Gijón Industrial	5	+2	7
11	Praviano	6	−2	5
12	San Martín	5	−5	5
13	Ceares	6	−4	4
14	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
15	Llanes	5	−6	3
16	Avilés Stadium	5	−7	3
17	Astur	5	−5	2
18	Andes	5	−7	1