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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 › Avilés Stadium v Langreo

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Avilés Stadium v Langreo

Avilés Stadium
0–0Full time
Langreo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Avilés Stadium 0–0 Langreo LANGREO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Langreo win42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.755

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Langreo win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Langreo was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 28–30–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Avilés Stadium v Langreo
  4. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Langreo win 35%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Avilés Stadium 0–0 Langreo
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Avilés Stadium 0–0 Langreo
  7. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Langreo win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  8. 52′We said Langreo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 22–48–30
  9. 54′We said Langreo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 21–49–29
  10. 64′We said Langreo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 18–58–24
  11. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Langreo win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  12. 72′We said Langreo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 14–67–19
  13. 78′We said Langreo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–76–14
  14. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Langreo win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  15. 83′We said Langreo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–85–9
  16. 90′We said Langreo at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
  17. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Langreo win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  18. FTFULL TIME Avilés Stadium 0–0 Langreo
  19. FTAvilés Stadium 0–0 Langreo · Langreo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Langreo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avilés Stadium 28%, draw 30%, Langreo 42%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Avilés Stadium v LangreoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Avilés Stadium win28%
Draw30%
Langreo win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:45

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avilés Stadium

Langreo

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Avilés Stadium6−66
13Langreo6−35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · langreo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market–
Us42%

We make Langreo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Avilés Stadium v Langreo0.98 – 1.28
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 6 v 512 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Avilés Stadium win28%––
Draw30%––
Langreo win42%––
Over 2.5 goals39%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals66%––
Over 3.5 goals20%––
Avilés Stadium or draw58%––
Avilés Stadium clean sheet29%––
Langreo clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 11.6 12.6 8.5 3.7 1 9.6 13.3 8.1 3.5 2 5.1 6.2 4.0 3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Avilés Stadium down, Langreo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

AVILÉS STADIUM

LLWLLW0–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

LANGREO

LDWWDL1–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sporting Gijón II7+917
2Covadonga7+1216
3Condal7+815
4Mosconia7+312
5Siero7+312
6Caudal7+212
7Praviano7+511
8Gijón Industrial7+311
9Lealtad7+211
10Colunga7−211
11San Martín6−38
12Avilés Stadium6−66
13Langreo6−35
14Ceares7−54
15Astur7−54
16Llanes7−74
17L'Entregu6−74
18Andes7−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.