Astur v Condal prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Astur 1–1 Condal ASTUR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Astur win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.745

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Astur win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Astur 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–31
1′KICK-OFF Astur v Condal
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Astur win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Astur 0–0 Condal
46′SECOND HALF Astur 0–0 Condal
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Astur win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
53′We said Astur at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–49–23
63′We said Astur at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–20
69′A goal for Condal on 68′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Astur 0–1 Condal
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Astur win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Condal win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
70′We said Astur at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–17–81
75′Astur score on 74′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 16–71–13
75′We said Astur at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–71–13
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Astur 1–1 Condal
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Astur win: 40% at kick-off, 16% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Condal win 13%)
76′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 15–73–13
77′We said Astur at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Astur win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
82′We said Astur at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
FTFULL TIME Astur 1–1 Condal
FTAstur 1–1 Condal · Astur win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Astur are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Astur 40%, draw 30%, Condal 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Astur v CondalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Astur win40%

Draw30%

Condal win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Astur

Condal

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · astur winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:47 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Astur a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Astur v Condal~~1.23 – 1.04

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 14~~16 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Astur win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Astur win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Condal win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Astur or draw	69%	–	–
Astur clean sheet	36%	–	–
Condal clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.7 10.2 5.7 2.1 1 12.0 13.4 6.6 2.4 2 7.7 7.7 4.0 3 3.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Astur down, Condal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Astur at home: 0.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Condal away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Astur, 1.04 for Condal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 6 Sept

ASTUR

LLLDDD0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2

CONDAL

WWDWDW1–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Condal	6	+8	14
2	Sporting Gijón II	6	+5	14
3	Covadonga	6	+8	13
4	Mosconia	6	+7	12
5	Siero	6	+6	12
6	Colunga	6	+2	11
7	Caudal	6	+2	11
8	Lealtad	6	+2	10
9	Praviano	6	+2	8
10	Gijón Industrial	6	+2	8
11	San Martín	6	−3	8
12	Avilés Stadium	6	−6	6
13	Langreo	6	−3	5
14	Ceares	6	−4	4
15	L'Entregu	6	−7	4
16	Astur	6	−5	3
17	Llanes	6	−7	3
18	Andes	6	−9	1