Andes v Astur prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AndesDrawAstur

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Andes 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Andes just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Andes 37%, draw 29%, Astur 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Andes v AsturBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Andes win37%

Draw29%

Astur win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:45

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Andes

Astur

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Astur	7	−5	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · andes winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Andes a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Andes v Astur~~1.22 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 4~~18 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Andes win

Published at 36%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Andes win	37%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Astur win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Andes or draw	66%	–	–
Andes clean sheet	32%	–	–
Astur clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.4 10.0 6.3 2.5 1 10.4 13.4 7.4 3.0 2 6.8 7.6 4.5 3 2.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Andes down, Astur across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,609 Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Andes at home: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Astur away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Andes, 1.18 for Astur. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 this season · since 13 Sept

ANDES

LDLLLD0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

ASTUR

LLDDDD1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting Gijón II	8	+10	20
2	Covadonga	7	+12	16
3	Condal	7	+8	15
4	Mosconia	7	+3	12
5	Siero	8	+2	12
6	Caudal	7	+2	12
7	Praviano	7	+5	11
8	Gijón Industrial	7	+3	11
9	Lealtad	7	+2	11
10	Colunga	7	−2	11
11	Langreo	8	−2	9
12	San Martín	7	−3	9
13	Avilés Stadium	7	−6	7
14	L'Entregu	7	−7	5
15	Ceares	7	−5	4
16	Astur	7	−5	4
17	Llanes	8	−8	4
18	Andes	7	−9	2