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Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 › Villarrubia v Guadalajara II

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Villarrubia v Guadalajara II

Villarrubia
4–0Full time
Guadalajara II

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36
Villarrubia 4–0 Guadalajara II VILLARRUBIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Villarrubia win51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.362

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Villarrubia win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Villarrubia 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–21
  3. 1′Villarrubia find the net on 1′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
  4. 1′KICK-OFF Villarrubia v Guadalajara II
  5. 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Villarrubia 1–0 Guadalajara II
  6. 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Villarrubia win: 51% at kick-off, 79% now
  7. 2′We said Villarrubia at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
  8. 29′A goal for Villarrubia on 28′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  9. 29′We said Villarrubia at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  10. 29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Villarrubia 2–0 Guadalajara II
  11. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Villarrubia win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
  12. 33′Villarrubia score on 33′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  13. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Villarrubia 3–0 Guadalajara II
  14. 34′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 38′Villarrubia find the net on 38′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  16. 38′We said Villarrubia at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 38′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Villarrubia 4–0 Guadalajara II
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Villarrubia 4–0 Guadalajara II
  20. 46′Villarrubia ahead on 37′ through G. Pimentel. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Villarrubia 4–0 Guadalajara II
  22. FTFULL TIME Villarrubia 4–0 Guadalajara II
  23. FTVillarrubia 4–0 Guadalajara II · Villarrubia win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villarrubia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villarrubia 51%, draw 28%, Guadalajara II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Villarrubia v Guadalajara IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Villarrubia win51%
Draw28%
Guadalajara II win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villarrubia

Guadalajara II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
16Villarrubia6−73
17Guadalajara II6−72

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villarrubia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
51% The market–
Us51%

We make Villarrubia a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Villarrubia v Guadalajara II1.50 – 0.87
Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 SeptW0 D3 L3 · W0 D2 L4
Table places · points 3 v 216 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Villarrubia win51%––
Draw28%––
Guadalajara II win21%––
Over 2.5 goals42%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals68%––
Over 3.5 goals22%––
Villarrubia or draw79%––
Villarrubia clean sheet43%––
Guadalajara II clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%
0123450 10.6 7.6 3.6 1 13.4 12.6 5.2 2 10.4 8.8 3.8 3 5.2 4.4 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Villarrubia down, Guadalajara II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsGUA 2–0 VIL · VIL 0–1 GUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept

VILLARRUBIA

DDLLDL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

GUADALAJARA II

LLDLDL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–6 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Manchego7+518
2Torrijos7+614
3Illescas7+414
4Toledo7+713
5Villarrobledo6+712
6CD Villa7012
7Villacañas7+311
8Marchamalo7+211
9Almansa6+510
10Tarancón6+410
11Noblejas7−210
12San Clemente6−28
13La Solana7−46
14Quintanar del Rey6−55
15Socuéllamos7−44
16Villarrubia6−73
17Guadalajara II6−72
18Huracán Balazote6−120

The competition's standings before kick-off.