Villarrobledo v Manchego prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VillarrobledoDrawManchego

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Manchego 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Manchego just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Villarrobledo 30%, draw 33%, Manchego 37%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Villarrobledo v ManchegoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Villarrobledo win30%

Draw33%

Manchego win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villarrobledo

Manchego

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manchego winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Manchego a 37% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villarrobledo v Manchego~~0.90 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 18~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villarrobledo win	30%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Manchego win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Villarrobledo or draw	63%	–	–
Villarrobledo clean sheet	36%	–	–
Manchego clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.7%

0123450 15.7 14.1 7.8 2.8 1 12.0 13.9 6.8 2.4 2 5.8 5.9 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villarrobledo down, Manchego across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villarrobledo at home: 0.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Manchego away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Villarrobledo, 1.04 for Manchego. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MAN 1–0 VIL · VIL 0–3 MAN · MAN 6–0 VIL · VIL 1–1 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 12 Sept

VILLARROBLEDO

DWWWDD1–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

MANCHEGO

WWWWLW2–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	7	+5	18
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
3	Tarancón	8	+5	14
4	Illescas	7	+4	14
5	Toledo	7	+7	13
6	Villarrobledo	7	+7	13
7	Noblejas	8	+1	13
8	CD Villa	7	0	12
9	Almansa	7	+5	11
10	Villacañas	7	+3	11
11	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9
13	Villarrubia	8	−3	7
14	La Solana	7	−4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	7	−6	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	−4	4
17	Guadalajara II	8	−14	2
18	Huracán Balazote	7	−12	1