Villacañas v Illescas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Villacañas 4–3 Illescas VILLACAÑAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villacañas win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.561

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villacañas win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Villacañas was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–38–23
1′KICK-OFF Villacañas v Illescas
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Villacañas win 36%)
31′Villacañas score on 30′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
31′We published Villacañas at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Villacañas 1–0 Illescas
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Villacañas win: 39% at kick-off, 80% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Villacañas win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 16%)
36′Goals are coming at about the 1.5 we expected. 1–0 · 80–16–3
36′Illescas find the net on 36′. 1–1. 1–1 · 31–49–20
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Villacañas 1–1 Illescas
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Villacañas win: 39% at kick-off, 31% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Villacañas win 31%)
40′A goal for Illescas on 39′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–23–70
40′We said Villacañas at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–23–70
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Villacañas 1–2 Illescas
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Villacañas win: 39% at kick-off, 7% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Illescas win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 23%)
41′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–23–70
45′HALF-TIME Villacañas 1–2 Illescas
46′SECOND HALF Villacañas 1–2 Illescas
49′Illescas score on 48′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
49′4 goals already, more than the 1.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Villacañas 1–3 Illescas
53′We said Villacañas at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
84′A goal for Villacañas on 84′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 6–91–4
84′6 goals already, more than the 1.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 6–91–4
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Villacañas 3–3 Illescas
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Illescas win 4%)
90′Villacañas score on 90′ to make it 4–3. 4–3 · 98–2–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Villacañas 4–3 Illescas
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Villacañas win: 39% at kick-off, 98% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Villacañas win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
91′We published Villacañas at 39%. Our model now makes it 98%. 4–3 · 98–2–0
91′That is 7, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 98–2–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Villacañas win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Villacañas 4–3 Illescas
FTVillacañas 4–3 Illescas · Villacañas win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Villacañas just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Villacañas 39%, draw 37%, Illescas 23%. Over 2.5 goals 20%, both teams to score 28%.

The AI’s read on Villacañas v IllescasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Villacañas win39%

Draw37%

Illescas win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villacañas

Illescas

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Illescas	6	+5	14
9	Villacañas	6	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villacañas winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Villacañas a 39% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 23%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villacañas v Illescas~~0.91 – 0.62

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Villacañas win

Published at 40%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villacañas win	39%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Illescas win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	20%	–	–
Both teams to score	28%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	46%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	7%	–	–
Villacañas or draw	77%	–	–
Villacañas clean sheet	54%	–	–
Illescas clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 23.1%

0123450 23.1 12.6 4.2 1 18.6 12.6 3.7 2 8.8 5.4 3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villacañas down, Illescas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,508 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villacañas at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Illescas away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Villacañas, 0.62 for Illescas. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VIL 1–0 ILL · ILL 0–0 VIL · VIL 0–0 ILL · ILL 1–0 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept

VILLACAÑAS

WLDWLD3–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

ILLESCAS

WDDWWW1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	6	+4	15
2	Torrijos	6	+8	14
3	Illescas	6	+5	14
4	Toledo	6	+8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	+7	12
6	CD Villa	6	+3	12
7	Almansa	6	+5	10
8	Tarancón	6	+4	10
9	Villacañas	6	+2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
11	San Clemente	6	−2	8
12	Noblejas	6	−5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	6	−6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	−7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	−12	0