Torrijos v Villacañas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TorrijosDrawVillacañas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Torrijos 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torrijos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torrijos 41%, draw 33%, Villacañas 27%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Torrijos v VillacañasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Torrijos win41%

Draw33%

Villacañas win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torrijos

Villacañas

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
10	Villacañas	7	+3	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torrijos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Torrijos a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torrijos v Villacañas~~1.10 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~2 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torrijos win	41%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Villacañas win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Torrijos or draw	73%	–	–
Torrijos clean sheet	44%	–	–
Villacañas clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 11.2 5.0 1 15.1 13.5 5.3 2 8.7 7.0 2.9 3 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torrijos down, Villacañas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torrijos at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Villacañas away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Torrijos, 0.83 for Villacañas. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TOR 0–0 VIL · VIL 1–0 TOR · VIL 1–0 TOR · TOR 3–0 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 12 Sept

TORRIJOS

WDWDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–2

VILLACAÑAS

LDWLDW0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	7	+5	18
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
3	Tarancón	8	+5	14
4	Illescas	7	+4	14
5	Toledo	7	+7	13
6	Villarrobledo	7	+7	13
7	Noblejas	8	+1	13
8	CD Villa	7	0	12
9	Almansa	7	+5	11
10	Villacañas	7	+3	11
11	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9
13	Villarrubia	8	−3	7
14	La Solana	7	−4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	7	−6	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	−4	4
17	Guadalajara II	8	−14	2
18	Huracán Balazote	7	−12	1