Torrijos v Noblejas prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Torrijos 4–0 Noblejas TORRIJOS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torrijos win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.238

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torrijos win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Torrijos 60% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–22–16
1′KICK-OFF Torrijos v Noblejas
4′Little has changed for our model: Torrijos 60% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Torrijos 1–0 Noblejas
21′17′ and it is 1–0: Torrijos have scored. 1–0 · 84–12–4
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Torrijos win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Torrijos win: 60% at kick-off, 62% now
22′17′ and it is 1–0: Torrijos have scored. 1–0 · 84–12–4
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Torrijos win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Torrijos win: 60% at kick-off, 62% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Torrijos win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 17' Torrijos 1–0 Noblejas
45′HALF-TIME Torrijos 1–0 Noblejas
64′SECOND HALF Torrijos 1–0 Noblejas
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Torrijos 2–0 Noblejas
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Torrijos 3–0 Noblejas
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Torrijos 4–0 Noblejas
FTFULL TIME Torrijos 4–0 Noblejas
FTTorrijos 4–0 Noblejas · Torrijos win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Torrijos win60%

Draw24%

Noblejas win16%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Torrijos

Noblejas

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torrijos winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Torrijos a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torrijos win	60%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Noblejas win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Torrijos or draw	84%	–	–
Torrijos clean sheet	45%	–	–
Noblejas clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.2 5.2 2.5 1 12.1 10.8 4.2 2 11.3 9.0 3.7 3 7.1 5.6 2.3 4 3.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torrijos down, Noblejas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,502 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Torrijos at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Noblejas away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Torrijos, 0.83 for Noblejas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

TORRIJOS

WWWDWD3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

NOBLEJAS

DWDWLL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	+7	11
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
6	Almansa	6	+5	10
7	Tarancón	6	+4	10
8	CD Villa	5	+2	9
9	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
10	Villacañas	5	+2	7
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	5	−5	3
16	Villarrubia	5	−6	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0