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Toledo v Huracán Balazote

Toledo

3–1Full time

Huracán Balazote

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Toledo 3–1 Huracán Balazote TOLEDO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Toledo win~~72%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.123

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.088

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Toledo win at 72%.
1′Much as we predicted: Toledo was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–18–9
1′KICK-OFF Toledo v Huracán Balazote
2′Much as we predicted: Toledo was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 73% now. 0–0 · 73–18–9
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Toledo 1–0 Huracán Balazote
22′A goal for Toledo on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 91–8–2
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Toledo win: 72% at kick-off, 91% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Toledo win: 72% at kick-off, 73% now
23′A goal for Toledo on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 91–8–2
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Toledo win: 72% at kick-off, 91% now
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Toledo 2–0 Huracán Balazote
45′34′ and it is 2–0: Toledo have scored. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Toledo win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Toledo win: 72% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Toledo 2–0 Huracán Balazote
46′SECOND HALF Toledo 2–0 Huracán Balazote
48′We published Toledo at 72%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
50′We published Toledo at 72%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 16' Toledo 2–0 Huracán Balazote
63′⚽ GOAL · 34' Toledo 2–0 Huracán Balazote
66′⚽ GOAL · 16' Toledo 3–0 Huracán Balazote
66′⚽ GOAL · 34' Toledo 3–0 Huracán Balazote
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Toledo 3–0 Huracán Balazote
70′Toledo find the net on 65′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Toledo 3–1 Huracán Balazote
86′A goal for Huracán Balazote on 81′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Toledo 3–1 Huracán Balazote
FTToledo 3–1 Huracán Balazote · Toledo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Toledo win72%

Draw19%

Huracán Balazote win9%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Toledo

Huracán Balazote

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · toledo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

72% The market77%

Us72%

~~Market~~77%

We make Toledo a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · toledo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Toledo win	72%	77%	−5
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Huracán Balazote win	9%	6%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Both teams to score	38%	31%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Toledo or draw	91%	94%	−2
Toledo clean sheet	57%	–	–
Huracán Balazote clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.8%

0123450 7.9 3.7 1 14.0 8.6 2.4 2 14.8 8.2 2.4 3 10.4 5.7 4 5.8 3.1 5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Toledo down, Huracán Balazote across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,502 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Toledo at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Huracán Balazote away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Toledo, 0.56 for Huracán Balazote. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HUR 0–1 TOL · TOL 2–0 HUR · TOL 1–0 HUR · HUR 0–0 TOL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

TOLEDO

LWDLWW0–1 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–1

HURACÁN BALAZOTE

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	+7	11
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
6	Almansa	6	+5	10
7	Tarancón	6	+4	10
8	CD Villa	5	+2	9
9	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
10	Villacañas	5	+2	7
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	5	−5	3
16	Villarrubia	5	−6	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0