Toledo v Almansa prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ToledoDrawAlmansa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Toledo 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Toledo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Toledo 61%, draw 24%, Almansa 14%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Toledo v AlmansaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Toledo win61%

Draw24%

Almansa win14%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Toledo

Almansa

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Toledo	7	+7	13
9	Almansa	7	+5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · toledo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Toledo a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Toledo v Almansa~~1.81 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~5 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Toledo win	61%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Almansa win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Toledo or draw	86%	–	–
Toledo clean sheet	49%	–	–
Almansa clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 9.5 5.4 2.3 1 13.8 10.8 3.7 2 12.5 8.7 3.2 3 7.5 5.2 4 3.6 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Toledo down, Almansa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Toledo at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Almansa away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Toledo, 0.72 for Almansa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 12 Sept

TOLEDO

DLWWWL1–1 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

ALMANSA

WDWLWD3–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	7	+5	18
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
3	Tarancón	8	+5	14
4	Illescas	7	+4	14
5	Toledo	7	+7	13
6	Villarrobledo	7	+7	13
7	Noblejas	8	+1	13
8	CD Villa	7	0	12
9	Almansa	7	+5	11
10	Villacañas	7	+3	11
11	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9
13	Villarrubia	8	−3	7
14	La Solana	7	−4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	7	−6	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	−4	4
17	Guadalajara II	8	−14	2
18	Huracán Balazote	7	−12	1