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Tarancón v Socuéllamos

Tarancón

1–0Full time

Socuéllamos

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Tarancón 1–0 Socuéllamos TARANCÓN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tarancón win~~50%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.375

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.383

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tarancón win at 50%.
2′KICK-OFF Tarancón v Socuéllamos
4′Little has changed for our model: Tarancón 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–22
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Tarancón 1–0 Socuéllamos
45′HALF-TIME Tarancón 1–0 Socuéllamos
46′SECOND HALF Tarancón 1–0 Socuéllamos
89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Socuéllamos
FTFULL TIME Tarancón 1–0 Socuéllamos
FTTarancón 1–0 Socuéllamos · Tarancón win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tarancón win50%

Draw29%

Socuéllamos win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tarancón winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

50% The market50%

Us50%

~~Market~~50%

We make Tarancón a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tarancón win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tarancón win	50%	50%	+1
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Socuéllamos win	21%	23%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	40%	46%	−6
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−6
Tarancón or draw	79%	77%	+2
Tarancón clean sheet	44%	–	–
Socuéllamos clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 11.6 7.8 3.7 1 13.8 12.8 5.1 2 10.4 8.5 3.6 3 5.1 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tarancón down, Socuéllamos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tarancón at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Socuéllamos away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Tarancón, 0.84 for Socuéllamos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TAR 0–0 SOC · SOC 0–1 TAR · TAR 0–0 SOC · SOC 1–0 TAR

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

TARANCÓN

LLLWWD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 6–2 · 2–2

SOCUÉLLAMOS

LDDDLD0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	+7	11
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
6	CD Villa	5	+2	9
7	Marchamalo	5	+3	8
8	Tarancón	5	+3	7
9	Almansa	5	+3	7
10	Villacañas	5	+2	7
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5
13	Socuéllamos	5	−2	4
14	La Solana	5	−5	3
15	Villarrubia	5	−6	3
16	Guadalajara II	5	−6	2
17	Quintanar del Rey	5	−6	2
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0