San Clemente v Marchamalo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San ClementeDrawMarchamalo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · San Clemente 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Clemente are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Clemente 40%, draw 26%, Marchamalo 34%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on San Clemente v MarchamaloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Clemente win40%

Draw26%

Marchamalo win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Clemente

Marchamalo

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san clemente winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make San Clemente a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Clemente v Marchamalo~~1.57 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Clemente win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Marchamalo win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
San Clemente or draw	66%	–	–
San Clemente clean sheet	25%	–	–
Marchamalo clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.2 6.6 5.1 2.4 1 7.4 11.7 7.6 3.7 2 6.2 8.4 5.9 2.8 3 3.3 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Clemente down, Marchamalo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Clemente at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Marchamalo away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for San Clemente, 1.42 for Marchamalo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 MAR · MAR 3–0 SAN · MAR 4–1 SAN · SAN 0–2 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 13 Sept

SAN CLEMENTE

DLLWWD1–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 5–3 · 3–1 · 1–1

MARCHAMALO

WDLDLW2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	7	+5	18
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
3	Tarancón	8	+5	14
4	Illescas	7	+4	14
5	Toledo	7	+7	13
6	Villarrobledo	7	+7	13
7	Noblejas	8	+1	13
8	CD Villa	7	0	12
9	Almansa	7	+5	11
10	Villacañas	7	+3	11
11	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9
13	Villarrubia	8	−3	7
14	La Solana	7	−4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	7	−6	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	−4	4
17	Guadalajara II	8	−14	2
18	Huracán Balazote	7	−12	1