San Clemente v Manchego prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

San Clemente 3–1 Manchego MANCHEGO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manchego win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.935

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manchego win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Manchego was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 23–25–52
1′KICK-OFF San Clemente v Manchego
7′Much as we predicted: Manchego was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 23–26–51
45′HALF-TIME San Clemente 0–0 Manchego
61′SECOND HALF San Clemente 0–0 Manchego
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' San Clemente 3–0 Manchego
79′⚽ GOAL · 70' San Clemente 3–0 Manchego
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' San Clemente 3–0 Manchego
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' San Clemente 3–1 Manchego
FTFULL TIME San Clemente 3–1 Manchego
FTSan Clemente 3–1 Manchego · Manchego win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

San Clemente win22%

Draw26%

Manchego win51%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

San Clemente

Manchego

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manchego winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Manchego a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Clemente win	22%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Manchego win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
San Clemente or draw	49%	–	–
San Clemente clean sheet	21%	–	–
Manchego clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.9 11.6 9.7 5.3 2.2 1 6.9 12.3 9.0 4.8 2.0 2 3.7 5.6 4.3 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Clemente down, Manchego across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,502 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Clemente at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Manchego away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for San Clemente, 1.60 for Manchego. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SAN 3–2 MAN · MAN 1–0 SAN · SAN 1–4 MAN · MAN 5–1 SAN

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

SAN CLEMENTE

LDDLLW0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 5–3

MANCHEGO

LWWWWW0–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	+7	11
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
6	Almansa	6	+5	10
7	Tarancón	6	+4	10
8	CD Villa	5	+2	9
9	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
10	Villacañas	5	+2	7
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	5	−5	3
16	Villarrubia	5	−6	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0