Quintanar del Rey v Tarancón prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Quintanar del Rey 1–2 Tarancón TARANCÓN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tarancón win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.616

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tarancón win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tarancón 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 33–31–36
1′KICK-OFF Quintanar del Rey v Tarancón
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Tarancón win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Quintanar del Rey 0–0 Tarancón
46′SECOND HALF Quintanar del Rey 0–0 Tarancón
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Tarancón win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
57′We said Tarancón at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
64′A goal for Quintanar del Rey on 64′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Quintanar del Rey 1–0 Tarancón
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Tarancón win: 36% at kick-off, 3% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Quintanar del Rey win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
65′We said Tarancón at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 79–17–3
75′Tarancón score on 75′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 14–72–14
75′We said Tarancón at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–72–14
75′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–1 · 14–72–14
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Quintanar del Rey 1–1 Tarancón
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Tarancón win: 36% at kick-off, 14% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Quintanar del Rey win 14%)
82′We said Tarancón at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
83′Tarancón find the net on 82′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
83′We said Tarancón at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–2 · 0–7–93
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Quintanar del Rey 1–2 Tarancón
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Tarancón win: 36% at kick-off, 93% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Tarancón win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
84′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–94
86′We said Tarancón at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Tarancón win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Quintanar del Rey 1–2 Tarancón
FTQuintanar del Rey 1–2 Tarancón · Tarancón win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Tarancón just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Quintanar del Rey 33%, draw 31%, Tarancón 36%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Quintanar del Rey v TarancónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Quintanar del Rey win33%

Draw31%

Tarancón win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Quintanar del Rey

Tarancón

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Tarancón	6	+4	10
15	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tarancón winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Tarancón a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Quintanar del Rey v Tarancón~~1.06 – 1.12

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~15 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quintanar del Rey win	33%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Tarancón win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Quintanar del Rey or draw	64%	–	–
Quintanar del Rey clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tarancón clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 12.6 11.9 7.0 2.7 1 11.3 13.6 7.1 2.7 2 6.4 6.9 3.8 3 2.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quintanar del Rey down, Tarancón across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,513 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Quintanar del Rey at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tarancón away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Quintanar del Rey, 1.12 for Tarancón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~QUI 2–1 TAR · TAR 0–1 QUI · QUI 1–0 TAR · TAR 0–1 QUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept

QUINTANAR DEL REY

LDDLLW2–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

TARANCÓN

LLWWDW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 6–2 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	7	+5	18
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
3	Illescas	7	+4	14
4	Toledo	7	+7	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	+7	12
6	CD Villa	7	0	12
7	Almansa	7	+5	11
8	Villacañas	7	+3	11
9	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
10	Tarancón	6	+4	10
11	Noblejas	7	−2	10
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9
13	Villarrubia	7	−3	6
14	La Solana	7	−4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	−4	4
17	Guadalajara II	7	−11	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	−12	0