Noblejas v CD Villa prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Noblejas 3–0 CD Villa CD VILLA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Villa win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.794

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Villa win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: CD Villa was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 28–26–46
1′KICK-OFF Noblejas v CD Villa
23′Noblejas find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 58–23–19
23′We said CD Villa at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–23–19
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Noblejas 1–0 CD Villa
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' CD Villa win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Noblejas win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was CD Villa win 19%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 59–24–17
32′A goal for Noblejas on 32′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 83–11–5
32′We said CD Villa at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 83–11–5
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Noblejas 2–0 CD Villa
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' CD Villa win: 46% at kick-off, 5% now
38′We said CD Villa at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 85–10–4
45′HALF-TIME Noblejas 2–0 CD Villa
46′SECOND HALF Noblejas 2–0 CD Villa
60′Noblejas score on 60′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Noblejas 3–0 CD Villa
FTFULL TIME Noblejas 3–0 CD Villa
FTNoblejas 3–0 CD Villa · CD Villa win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CD Villa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Noblejas 28%, draw 26%, CD Villa 46%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Noblejas v CD VillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Noblejas win28%

Draw26%

CD Villa win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Noblejas

CD Villa

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	CD Villa	6	+3	12
12	Noblejas	6	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cd villa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make CD Villa a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Noblejas v CD Villa~~1.19 – 1.61

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 12~~12 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Noblejas win	28%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
CD Villa win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Noblejas or draw	54%	–	–
Noblejas clean sheet	22%	–	–
CD Villa clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.7 9.3 7.7 4.2 1 6.9 12.0 8.6 4.6 2 4.5 6.6 5.1 2.7 3 2.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Noblejas down, CD Villa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,508 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Noblejas at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). CD Villa away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Noblejas, 1.61 for CD Villa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept

NOBLEJAS

WDWLLL3–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–4

CD VILLA

LWLWWW0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	6	+4	15
2	Torrijos	6	+8	14
3	Illescas	6	+5	14
4	Toledo	6	+8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	+7	12
6	CD Villa	6	+3	12
7	Almansa	6	+5	10
8	Tarancón	6	+4	10
9	Villacañas	6	+2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
11	San Clemente	6	−2	8
12	Noblejas	6	−5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	6	−6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	−7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	−12	0