Marchamalo v Socuéllamos prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Marchamalo 1–0 Socuéllamos MARCHAMALO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Marchamalo win~~36%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.538

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Marchamalo win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Marchamalo 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Marchamalo v Socuéllamos
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Marchamalo win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Marchamalo 0–0 Socuéllamos
46′SECOND HALF Marchamalo 0–0 Socuéllamos
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Marchamalo win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
58′Marchamalo score on 58′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Marchamalo 1–0 Socuéllamos
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Marchamalo win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Marchamalo win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
59′We said Marchamalo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Marchamalo win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
66′We said Marchamalo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
75′We said Marchamalo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Marchamalo win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
81′We said Marchamalo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
87′We said Marchamalo at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Marchamalo win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
91′Marchamalo are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 97–3–0
91′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Marchamalo
FTFULL TIME Marchamalo 1–0 Socuéllamos
FTMarchamalo 1–0 Socuéllamos · Marchamalo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Marchamalo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Marchamalo 36%, draw 29%, Socuéllamos 35%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Marchamalo v SocuéllamosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Marchamalo win36%

Draw29%

Socuéllamos win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Marchamalo

Socuéllamos

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · marchamalo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market40%

Us36%

~~Market~~40%

We make Marchamalo a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Marchamalo v Socuéllamos~~1.20 – 1.18

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~10 v 14

~~The market · Marchamalo win~~40% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Marchamalo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Marchamalo win	36%	40%	−4
Draw	29%	29%	0
Socuéllamos win	35%	31%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	43%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
Marchamalo or draw	65%	69%	−4
Marchamalo clean sheet	32%	–	–
Socuéllamos clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.6 10.1 6.4 2.6 1 10.3 13.5 7.4 3.0 2 6.7 7.5 4.4 3 2.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Marchamalo down, Socuéllamos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,508 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Marchamalo at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Socuéllamos away: 0.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Marchamalo, 1.18 for Socuéllamos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAR 0–3 SOC · SOC 1–0 MAR · SOC 3–0 MAR · MAR 0–0 SOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept

MARCHAMALO

WWDLDL2–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–3

SOCUÉLLAMOS

DDDLDL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	6	+4	15
2	Torrijos	6	+8	14
3	Illescas	6	+5	14
4	Toledo	6	+8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	+7	12
6	CD Villa	6	+3	12
7	Almansa	6	+5	10
8	Tarancón	6	+4	10
9	Villacañas	6	+2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
11	San Clemente	6	−2	8
12	Noblejas	6	−5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	6	−6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	−7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	−12	0