Manchego v Toledo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Manchego 1–0 Toledo TOLEDO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Toledo win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Toledo win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Toledo was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 33–32–35
1′KICK-OFF Manchego v Toledo
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Toledo win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Manchego 0–0 Toledo
46′SECOND HALF Manchego 0–0 Toledo
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Toledo win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
57′We said Toledo at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 22–54–23
62′Manchego score on 61′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
62′We said Toledo at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–0 · 79–18–3
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Manchego 1–0 Toledo
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Toledo win: 35% at kick-off, 3% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Manchego win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
FTFULL TIME Manchego 1–0 Toledo
FTManchego 1–0 Toledo · Toledo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Toledo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Manchego 33%, draw 32%, Toledo 35%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Manchego v ToledoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Manchego win33%

Draw32%

Toledo win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Manchego

Toledo

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · toledo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Toledo a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Manchego v Toledo~~1.00 – 1.05

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~1 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Toledo win

Published at 33%, 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Manchego win	33%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Toledo win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Manchego or draw	65%	–	–
Manchego clean sheet	36%	–	–
Toledo clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.1%

0123450 14.1 12.6 7.0 2.5 1 12.0 13.9 6.8 2.4 2 6.5 6.6 3.4 3 2.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Manchego down, Toledo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,508 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Manchego at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Toledo away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Manchego, 1.05 for Toledo. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TOL 1–0 MAN · MAN 1–1 TOL · TOL 0–0 MAN · MAN 1–0 TOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept

MANCHEGO

WWWWWL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–3

TOLEDO

WDLWWW4–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	6	+4	15
2	Torrijos	6	+8	14
3	Illescas	6	+5	14
4	Toledo	6	+8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	+7	12
6	CD Villa	6	+3	12
7	Almansa	6	+5	10
8	Tarancón	6	+4	10
9	Villacañas	6	+2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
11	San Clemente	6	−2	8
12	Noblejas	6	−5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	6	−6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	−7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	−12	0