La Solana v Torrijos prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34

La Solana 2–0 Torrijos TORRIJOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torrijos win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.790

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torrijos win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Torrijos was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 27–33–40
2′KICK-OFF La Solana v Torrijos
16′A goal for La Solana on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–14
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' La Solana 1–0 Torrijos
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Torrijos win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' La Solana win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Torrijos win 14%)
17′We said Torrijos at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 65–24–11
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Torrijos win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
38′We said Torrijos at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
39′La Solana score on 39′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
39′We said Torrijos at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' La Solana 2–0 Torrijos
45′HALF-TIME La Solana 2–0 Torrijos
46′SECOND HALF La Solana 2–0 Torrijos
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Torrijos win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME La Solana 2–0 Torrijos
FTLa Solana 2–0 Torrijos · Torrijos win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torrijos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: La Solana 28%, draw 32%, Torrijos 40%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on La Solana v TorrijosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

La Solana win28%

Draw32%

Torrijos win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

La Solana

Torrijos

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Torrijos	6	+8	14
15	La Solana	6	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torrijos winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Torrijos a 40% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.1, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · La Solana v Torrijos~~0.87 – 1.12

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 14~~15 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Torrijos win

Published at 37%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
La Solana win	28%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Torrijos win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
La Solana or draw	60%	–	–
La Solana clean sheet	34%	–	–
Torrijos clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.2%

0123450 15.2 14.4 8.5 3.3 1 11.1 13.5 7.0 2.7 2 5.2 5.6 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+La Solana down, Torrijos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,508 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

La Solana at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Torrijos away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for La Solana, 1.12 for Torrijos. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TOR 3–2 LAS · LAS 2–1 TOR · LAS 0–1 TOR · TOR 1–1 LAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept

LA SOLANA

LLWLLL0–1 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–1

TORRIJOS

WWDWDW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	6	+4	15
2	Torrijos	6	+8	14
3	Illescas	6	+5	14
4	Toledo	6	+8	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	+7	12
6	CD Villa	6	+3	12
7	Almansa	6	+5	10
8	Tarancón	6	+4	10
9	Villacañas	6	+2	8
10	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
11	San Clemente	6	−2	8
12	Noblejas	6	−5	7
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	6	−6	3
16	Villarrubia	6	−7	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	−12	0