Illescas v La Solana prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Illescas 1–0 La Solana ILLESCAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Illescas win~~49%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.405

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.233

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Illescas win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Illescas 49% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–31–19
2′Little has changed for our model: Illescas 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–32–19
45′We said Illescas at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–49–16
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 38% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 41% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 36% now
46′SECOND HALF Illescas 0–0 La Solana
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 36% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Illescas win 36%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 36% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Illescas win 36%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 36% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Illescas win 36%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 36% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Illescas win 36%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 36% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Illescas win 36%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Illescas win: 49% at kick-off, 36% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Illescas win 36%)
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Illescas 1–0 La Solana
FTFULL TIME Illescas 1–0 La Solana
FTIllescas 1–0 La Solana · Illescas win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Illescas win49%

Draw33%

La Solana win19%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Illescas

La Solana

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
15	La Solana	5	−5	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · illescas winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

49% The market61%

Us49%

~~Market~~61%

We make Illescas a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · illescas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Illescas win	49%	61%	−12
Draw	33%	25%	+8
La Solana win	19%	14%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	27%	44%	−18
Both teams to score	32%	43%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	54%	69%	−15
Over 3.5 goals	11%	24%	−14
Illescas or draw	81%	86%	−4
Illescas clean sheet	55%	–	–
La Solana clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.8%

0123450 18.1 9.5 3.2 1 18.8 12.4 3.6 2 11.4 6.8 2.1 3 4.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Illescas down, La Solana across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,502 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Illescas at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). La Solana away: 0.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Illescas, 0.61 for La Solana. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LAS 1–0 ILL · ILL 0–0 LAS · ILL 3–0 LAS · LAS 0–4 ILL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

ILLESCAS

DWDDWW0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

LA SOLANA

LLLWLL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	+7	11
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
6	Almansa	6	+5	10
7	Tarancón	6	+4	10
8	CD Villa	5	+2	9
9	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
10	Villacañas	5	+2	7
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	5	−5	3
16	Villarrubia	5	−6	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0