Illescas v Huracán Balazote prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IllescasDrawHuracán Balazote

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Illescas 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Illescas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Illescas 51%, draw 29%, Huracán Balazote 20%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Illescas v Huracán BalazoteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Illescas win51%

Draw29%

Huracán Balazote win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Illescas

Huracán Balazote

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Illescas	7	+4	14
18	Huracán Balazote	7	−12	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · illescas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Illescas a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Illescas v Huracán Balazote~~1.40 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 1~~4 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Illescas win	51%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Huracán Balazote win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Illescas or draw	80%	–	–
Illescas clean sheet	48%	–	–
Huracán Balazote clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 12.9 8.0 3.4 1 15.4 12.7 4.5 2 11.2 8.2 3.1 3 5.4 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Illescas down, Huracán Balazote across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Illescas at home: 0.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Huracán Balazote away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Illescas, 0.75 for Huracán Balazote. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ILL 0–1 HUR · HUR 1–0 ILL · ILL 2–0 HUR · HUR 0–1 ILL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 13 Sept

ILLESCAS

DDWWWL0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–4

HURACÁN BALAZOTE

LLLLLD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–5 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	7	+5	18
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
3	Tarancón	8	+5	14
4	Illescas	7	+4	14
5	Toledo	7	+7	13
6	Villarrobledo	7	+7	13
7	Noblejas	8	+1	13
8	CD Villa	7	0	12
9	Almansa	7	+5	11
10	Villacañas	7	+3	11
11	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9
13	Villarrubia	8	−3	7
14	La Solana	7	−4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	7	−6	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	−4	4
17	Guadalajara II	8	−14	2
18	Huracán Balazote	7	−12	1