Huracán Balazote v Villarrobledo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Huracán Balazote 1–1 Villarrobledo HURACÁN BALAZOTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Huracán Balazote win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Huracán Balazote just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Huracán Balazote 36%, draw 31%, Villarrobledo 33%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Huracán Balazote v VillarrobledoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Huracán Balazote win36%

Draw31%

Villarrobledo win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Huracán Balazote

Villarrobledo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Villarrobledo	6	+7	12
18	Huracán Balazote	6	−12	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · huracán balazote winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Huracán Balazote a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Huracán Balazote v Villarrobledo~~1.10 – 1.04

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 12~~18 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Huracán Balazote win

Published at 35%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huracán Balazote win	36%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Villarrobledo win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Huracán Balazote or draw	67%	–	–
Huracán Balazote clean sheet	36%	–	–
Villarrobledo clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 13.0 11.5 6.4 2.3 1 12.2 13.8 6.7 2.4 2 7.1 7.2 3.7 3 2.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huracán Balazote down, Villarrobledo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,513 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Huracán Balazote at home: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Villarrobledo away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Huracán Balazote, 1.04 for Villarrobledo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~VIL 1–1 HUR · HUR 2–1 VIL · HUR 2–0 VIL · VIL 0–0 HUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 5 Sept

HURACÁN BALAZOTE

LLLLLL0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–5 · 1–3

VILLARROBLEDO

DDWWWD0–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	7	+5	18
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
3	Illescas	7	+4	14
4	Toledo	7	+7	13
5	Villarrobledo	6	+7	12
6	CD Villa	7	0	12
7	Almansa	7	+5	11
8	Villacañas	7	+3	11
9	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
10	Tarancón	6	+4	10
11	Noblejas	7	−2	10
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9
13	Villarrubia	7	−3	6
14	La Solana	7	−4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	−4	4
17	Guadalajara II	7	−11	2
18	Huracán Balazote	6	−12	0