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Guadalajara II v Quintanar del Rey

Guadalajara II

0–1Full time

Quintanar del Rey

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Guadalajara II 0–1 Quintanar del Rey QUINTANAR DEL REY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quintanar del Rey win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.609

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quintanar del Rey win at 36%.
3′KICK-OFF Guadalajara II v Quintanar del Rey
6′Much as we predicted: Quintanar del Rey was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 33–30–37
27′A red card for Guadalajara II on 23′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 30–36–33
27′🟥 RED CARD · 23' Guadalajara II
45′HALF-TIME Guadalajara II 0–0 Quintanar del Rey
47′SECOND HALF Guadalajara II 0–0 Quintanar del Rey
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Guadalajara II 0–1 Quintanar del Rey
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Guadalajara II 0–1 Quintanar del Rey
69′⚽ GOAL · 67' Guadalajara II 0–1 Quintanar del Rey
FTFULL TIME Guadalajara II 0–1 Quintanar del Rey
FTGuadalajara II 0–1 Quintanar del Rey · Quintanar del Rey win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Guadalajara II win33%

Draw31%

Quintanar del Rey win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quintanar del rey winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Quintanar del Rey a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guadalajara II win	33%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Quintanar del Rey win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Guadalajara II or draw	64%	–	–
Guadalajara II clean sheet	33%	–	–
Quintanar del Rey clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 12.8 11.8 7.1 2.8 1 11.0 13.8 7.2 2.8 2 6.3 6.8 3.8 3 2.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guadalajara II down, Quintanar del Rey across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Guadalajara II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Quintanar del Rey away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Guadalajara II, 1.13 for Quintanar del Rey. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

GUADALAJARA II

LLLDLD0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–6 · 2–2

QUINTANAR DEL REY

LLDDLL0–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	+7	11
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
6	CD Villa	5	+2	9
7	Marchamalo	5	+3	8
8	Tarancón	5	+3	7
9	Almansa	5	+3	7
10	Villacañas	5	+2	7
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5
13	Socuéllamos	5	−2	4
14	La Solana	5	−5	3
15	Villarrubia	5	−6	3
16	Guadalajara II	5	−6	2
17	Quintanar del Rey	5	−6	2
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0