Guadalajara II v Noblejas

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Guadalajara II win at 49%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Guadalajara II 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF Guadalajara II v Noblejas
4. 30′Noblejas score on 30′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–57
5. 30′We said Guadalajara II at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–57
6. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 19–25–57
7. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Guadalajara II 0–1 Noblejas
8. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Guadalajara II win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
9. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Noblejas win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Guadalajara II win 43%)
10. 43′We said Guadalajara II at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
11. 45′HALF-TIME Guadalajara II 0–1 Noblejas
12. 46′SECOND HALF Guadalajara II 0–1 Noblejas
13. 55′Guadalajara II find the net on 54′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–44–22
14. 55′We said Guadalajara II at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–44–22
15. 55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Guadalajara II 1–1 Noblejas
16. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Guadalajara II win: 49% at kick-off, 35% now
17. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Noblejas win 65%)
18. 56′We said Guadalajara II at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
19. 63′A goal for Noblejas on 63′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 7–23–70
20. 63′We said Guadalajara II at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–23–70
21. 63′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–23–70
22. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Guadalajara II 1–2 Noblejas
23. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Guadalajara II win: 49% at kick-off, 7% now
24. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Noblejas win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 50%)
25. 70′We said Guadalajara II at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
26. 71′Guadalajara II are down to ten from 71′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 4–20–76
27. 71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Guadalajara II
28. 72′Noblejas score on 72′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–96
29. 72′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–3–96
30. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Guadalajara II 1–3 Noblejas
31. 84′Noblejas find the net on 83′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
32. 84′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
33. 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Guadalajara II 1–4 Noblejas
34. FTFULL TIME Guadalajara II 1–4 Noblejas
35. FTGuadalajara II 1–4 Noblejas · Guadalajara II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.