CD Villa v Villarrubia prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

CD Villa 2–1 Villarrubia CD VILLA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CD Villa win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CD Villa win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF CD Villa v Villarrubia
3′Little has changed for our model: CD Villa 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
6′Little has changed for our model: CD Villa 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–26
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' CD Villa 0–1 Villarrubia
45′HALF-TIME CD Villa 0–1 Villarrubia
45′⚽ GOAL · 24' CD Villa 0–1 Villarrubia
46′SECOND HALF CD Villa 0–1 Villarrubia
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' CD Villa 1–1 Villarrubia
FTFULL TIME CD Villa 2–1 Villarrubia
FTCD Villa 2–1 Villarrubia · CD Villa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

CD Villa win45%

Draw29%

Villarrubia win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CD Villa

Villarrubia

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	CD Villa	5	+2	9
16	Villarrubia	5	−6	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cd villa winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

45% The market–

Us45%

We make CD Villa a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CD Villa win	45%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Villarrubia win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
CD Villa or draw	75%	–	–
CD Villa clean sheet	40%	–	–
Villarrubia clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 11.7 8.8 4.5 1 12.9 13.1 5.7 2 9.1 8.2 3.8 3 4.2 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CD Villa down, Villarrubia across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,502 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

CD Villa at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 2). Villarrubia away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for CD Villa, 0.93 for Villarrubia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

CD VILLA

LWLWW0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

VILLARRUBIA

WDDLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	+7	11
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
6	Almansa	6	+5	10
7	Tarancón	6	+4	10
8	CD Villa	5	+2	9
9	Marchamalo	6	+1	8
10	Villacañas	5	+2	7
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5
13	Quintanar del Rey	6	−5	5
14	Socuéllamos	6	−3	4
15	La Solana	5	−5	3
16	Villarrubia	5	−6	3
17	Guadalajara II	6	−7	2
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0