Almansa v Villarrobledo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AlmansaDrawVillarrobledo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Almansa 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Almansa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Almansa 48%, draw 29%, Villarrobledo 23%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Almansa v VillarrobledoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Almansa win48%

Draw29%

Villarrobledo win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 23:00

RoundGroup 18 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Almansa

Villarrobledo

13Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Villarrobledo	7	+7	13
9	Almansa	7	+5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almansa winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Almansa a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Almansa v Villarrobledo~~1.38 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 13~~9 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almansa win	48%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Villarrobledo win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Almansa or draw	77%	–	–
Almansa clean sheet	43%	–	–
Villarrobledo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 12.0 8.5 4.1 1 13.7 12.9 5.3 2 9.8 8.2 3.6 3 4.6 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almansa down, Villarrobledo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,519 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almansa at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Villarrobledo away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Almansa, 0.87 for Villarrobledo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALM 1–3 VIL · VIL 2–0 ALM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 this season · since 13 Sept

ALMANSA

WDWLWD3–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

VILLARROBLEDO

DWWWDD1–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	7	+5	18
2	Torrijos	7	+6	14
3	Tarancón	8	+5	14
4	Illescas	7	+4	14
5	Toledo	7	+7	13
6	Villarrobledo	7	+7	13
7	Noblejas	8	+1	13
8	CD Villa	7	0	12
9	Almansa	7	+5	11
10	Villacañas	7	+3	11
11	Marchamalo	7	+2	11
12	San Clemente	7	−2	9
13	Villarrubia	8	−3	7
14	La Solana	7	−4	6
15	Quintanar del Rey	7	−6	5
16	Socuéllamos	7	−4	4
17	Guadalajara II	8	−14	2
18	Huracán Balazote	7	−12	1