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Almansa v Marchamalo

Almansa

3–1Full time

Marchamalo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Almansa 3–1 Marchamalo ALMANSA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almansa win~~51%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.520

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almansa win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF Almansa v Marchamalo
3′Much as we predicted: Almansa was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–25
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Almansa 0–1 Marchamalo
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Almansa 0–2 Marchamalo
45′HALF-TIME Almansa 0–1 Marchamalo
46′SECOND HALF Almansa 0–1 Marchamalo
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Almansa 1–1 Marchamalo
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Almansa 2–1 Marchamalo
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Marchamalo
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Almansa 3–1 Marchamalo
90′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Almansa
FTFULL TIME Almansa 3–1 Marchamalo
FTAlmansa 3–1 Marchamalo · Almansa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Almansa win51%

Draw25%

Marchamalo win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almansa winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

51% The market41%

Us51%

~~Market~~41%

We make Almansa a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · almansa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almansa win	51%	41%	+10
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Marchamalo win	24%	30%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	46%	+9
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	70%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	34%	26%	+8
Almansa or draw	76%	70%	+6
Almansa clean sheet	33%	–	–
Marchamalo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.0 5.8 3.7 1 9.1 11.3 6.0 2.4 2 8.3 8.9 5.0 2.0 3 4.9 5.3 3.0 4 2.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almansa down, Marchamalo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Almansa at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Marchamalo away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Almansa, 1.15 for Marchamalo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18

ALMANSA

WLWDWL3–0 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1

MARCHAMALO

LWWDLD0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchego	5	+6	15
2	Villarrobledo	5	+7	11
3	Illescas	5	+4	11
4	Torrijos	5	+4	11
5	Toledo	5	+6	10
6	CD Villa	5	+2	9
7	Marchamalo	5	+3	8
8	Tarancón	5	+3	7
9	Almansa	5	+3	7
10	Villacañas	5	+2	7
11	Noblejas	5	−1	7
12	San Clemente	5	−4	5
13	Socuéllamos	5	−2	4
14	La Solana	5	−5	3
15	Villarrubia	5	−6	3
16	Guadalajara II	5	−6	2
17	Quintanar del Rey	5	−6	2
18	Huracán Balazote	5	−10	0