Robres v Cuarte prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Robres 2–2 Cuarte CUARTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cuarte win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cuarte win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cuarte was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 20–26–53
1′KICK-OFF Robres v Cuarte
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Cuarte win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 19–39–42
45′HALF-TIME Robres 0–0 Cuarte
46′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 18–42–40
46′SECOND HALF Robres 0–0 Cuarte
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Cuarte win: 54% at kick-off, 40% now
48′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 18–43–39
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Cuarte win 38%)
55′We expected about 2.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 17–48–36
58′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 16–50–34
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Cuarte win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
65′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 14–57–29
71′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 12–64–24
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Cuarte win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
76′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 10–71–19
81′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 7–80–13
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Cuarte win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
84′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–86–9
91′We said Cuarte at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 2–94–4
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Cuarte win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Robres 2–2 Cuarte
FTRobres 2–2 Cuarte · Cuarte win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cuarte are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Robres 20%, draw 26%, Cuarte 54%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Robres v CuarteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Robres win20%

Draw26%

Cuarte win54%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Robres

Cuarte

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
18	Robres	6	−10	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cuarte winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:51 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Cuarte a 54% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Robres v Cuarte~~0.84 – 1.57

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 10~~18 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cuarte win

Published at 52%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Robres win	20%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Cuarte win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Robres or draw	46%	–	–
Robres clean sheet	22%	–	–
Cuarte clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.9 13.7 10.9 5.8 2.4 1 7.3 12.0 8.9 4.7 2 3.3 4.9 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Robres down, Cuarte across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Robres at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cuarte away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Robres, 1.57 for Cuarte. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ROB 1–2 CUA · CUA 1–1 ROB · CUA 0–0 ROB · ROB 0–3 CUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 5 Sept

ROBRES

LLDLLL1–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–3

CUARTE

WWLLWD2–0 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	6	+11	16
2	Ejea	6	+7	15
3	Brea	6	+8	14
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
6	Épila	6	+3	10
7	Atlético Monzón	6	−2	10
8	Caspe	6	+3	9
9	Almudévar	7	+1	8
10	Binéfar	6	−1	7
11	Huesca II	6	−1	7
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	−11	2
18	Robres	6	−10	1