Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 › Real Zaragoza II v Atlético Monzón

Real Zaragoza II v Atlético Monzón

Real Zaragoza II

3–0Full time

Atlético Monzón

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Real Zaragoza II 3–0 Atlético Monzón REAL ZARAGOZA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Zaragoza II win~~47%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.418

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Zaragoza II win at 47%.
2′Much as we predicted: Real Zaragoza II was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
40′A goal for Real Zaragoza II on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
45′A goal for Real Zaragoza II on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′We published Real Zaragoza II at 47%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 42% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Real Zaragoza II 2–0 Atlético Monzón
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
46′SECOND HALF Real Zaragoza II 2–0 Atlético Monzón
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Real Zaragoza II win: 47% at kick-off, 94% now
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Real Zaragoza II 3–0 Atlético Monzón
FTFULL TIME Real Zaragoza II 3–0 Atlético Monzón
FTReal Zaragoza II 3–0 Atlético Monzón · Real Zaragoza II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Zaragoza II win47%

Draw25%

Atlético Monzón win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Zaragoza II

Atlético Monzón

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Real Zaragoza II	5	+8	13
6	Atlético Monzón	5	+1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real zaragoza ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

47% The market55%

Us47%

~~Market~~55%

We make Real Zaragoza II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real zaragoza ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Zaragoza II win	47%	55%	−8
Draw	25%	25%	0
Atlético Monzón win	28%	20%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	0
Real Zaragoza II or draw	72%	80%	−8
Real Zaragoza II clean sheet	30%	–	–
Atlético Monzón clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.4 6.6 4.3 1 8.8 11.3 6.6 2.8 2 7.5 8.8 5.4 2.3 3 4.3 5.0 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Zaragoza II down, Atlético Monzón across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,489 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.6% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Zaragoza II at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Monzón away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Real Zaragoza II, 1.24 for Atlético Monzón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–3 REA · REA 3–0 ATL

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

REAL ZARAGOZA II

WWWDWW4–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–1

ATLÉTICO MONZÓN

WLWDWW1–0 · 0–3 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ejea	6	+7	15
2	Brea	6	+8	14
3	Real Zaragoza II	5	+8	13
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
6	Atlético Monzón	5	+1	10
7	Caspe	6	+3	9
8	Épila	6	0	8
9	Almudévar	6	+1	7
10	Binéfar	6	−1	7
11	Huesca II	6	−1	7
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	6	−3	5
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5
17	Robres	6	−7	2
18	Belchite 97	6	−11	2