Real Zaragoza II v Almudévar prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Real Zaragoza II 4–0 Almudévar REAL ZARAGOZA II WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Zaragoza II win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.254

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Zaragoza II win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Zaragoza II was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–25–16
1′KICK-OFF Real Zaragoza II v Almudévar
3′Real Zaragoza II find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–5
3′We published Real Zaragoza II at 59%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Real Zaragoza II 1–0 Almudévar
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Real Zaragoza II win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
19′A goal for Real Zaragoza II on 19′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Real Zaragoza II 2–0 Almudévar
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Real Zaragoza II win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
20′We published Real Zaragoza II at 59%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Real Zaragoza II 2–0 Almudévar
46′SECOND HALF Real Zaragoza II 2–0 Almudévar
59′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Real Zaragoza II win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
72′Real Zaragoza II score on 71′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′We published Real Zaragoza II at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Real Zaragoza II 3–0 Almudévar
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Real Zaragoza II 4–0 Almudévar
FTReal Zaragoza II 4–0 Almudévar · Real Zaragoza II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Zaragoza II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Zaragoza II 59%, draw 25%, Almudévar 16%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Real Zaragoza II v AlmudévarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Real Zaragoza II win59%

Draw25%

Almudévar win16%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Zaragoza II

Almudévar

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

Last match: 17 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real zaragoza ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Real Zaragoza II a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Zaragoza II v Almudévar~~1.72 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 8~~1 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Zaragoza II win	59%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Almudévar win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Real Zaragoza II or draw	84%	–	–
Real Zaragoza II clean sheet	48%	–	–
Almudévar clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 9.6 6.3 2.6 1 14.2 11.1 4.1 2 12.1 8.7 3.3 3 7.0 5.0 4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Zaragoza II down, Almudévar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Real Zaragoza II at home: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Almudévar away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Real Zaragoza II, 0.75 for Almudévar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 13 Sept

REAL ZARAGOZA II

WDWWWL2–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–2

ALMUDÉVAR

LWLLDD1–3 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	7	+9	16
2	Ejea	7	+5	15
3	Brea	7	+7	14
4	Caspe	7	+4	12
5	Fraga	7	+4	12
6	Cuarte	7	+5	11
7	Épila	7	+3	11
8	Binéfar	7	+1	10
9	Huesca II	7	+1	10
10	La Almunia	7	0	10
11	Atlético Monzón	7	−4	10
12	CDJ Tamarite	7	−1	9
13	Almudévar	7	+1	8
14	Andorra CF	7	−4	8
15	Illueca	7	−5	7
16	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
17	Robres	7	−10	2
18	Belchite 97	7	−13	2