La Almunia v Ejea prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

La Almunia 2–0 Ejea EJEA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ejea win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.741

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ejea win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ejea 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 31–26–44
1′KICK-OFF La Almunia v Ejea
29′A goal for La Almunia on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–16
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' La Almunia 1–0 Ejea
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Ejea win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' La Almunia win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Ejea win 16%)
30′We said Ejea at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 61–23–16
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 61–23–16
36′We said Ejea at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Ejea win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
45′HALF-TIME La Almunia 1–0 Ejea
46′SECOND HALF La Almunia 1–0 Ejea
53′We said Ejea at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
69′We said Ejea at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Ejea win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
88′La Almunia score on 88′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' La Almunia 2–0 Ejea
FTFULL TIME La Almunia 2–0 Ejea
FTLa Almunia 2–0 Ejea · Ejea win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ejea are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: La Almunia 31%, draw 25%, Ejea 44%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on La Almunia v EjeaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

La Almunia win31%

Draw25%

Ejea win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

La Almunia

Ejea

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ejea	6	+7	15
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ejea winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Ejea a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · La Almunia v Ejea~~1.26 – 1.57

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~12 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
La Almunia win	31%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ejea win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
La Almunia or draw	56%	–	–
La Almunia clean sheet	22%	–	–
Ejea clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.8 9.0 7.2 3.8 1 7.3 11.8 8.7 4.6 2 4.8 7.1 5.4 2.8 3 2.0 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+La Almunia down, Ejea across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

La Almunia at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ejea away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for La Almunia, 1.57 for Ejea. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LAA 0–2 EJE · EJE 1–0 LAA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept

LA ALMUNIA

DLWWLL2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

EJEA

LWWWWW0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 5–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	6	+11	16
2	Ejea	6	+7	15
3	Brea	6	+8	14
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
6	Épila	6	+3	10
7	Atlético Monzón	6	−2	10
8	Caspe	6	+3	9
9	Almudévar	7	+1	8
10	Binéfar	6	−1	7
11	Huesca II	6	−1	7
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	−11	2
18	Robres	6	−10	1