Illueca v CDJ Tamarite prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Illueca 4–0 CDJ Tamarite CDJ TAMARITE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CDJ Tamarite win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.615

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CDJ Tamarite win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: CDJ Tamarite was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Illueca v CDJ Tamarite
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was CDJ Tamarite win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Illueca 0–0 CDJ Tamarite
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' CDJ Tamarite win: 38% at kick-off, 32% now
46′SECOND HALF Illueca 0–0 CDJ Tamarite
49′Illueca find the net on 48′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
49′We said CDJ Tamarite at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Illueca 2–0 CDJ Tamarite
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' CDJ Tamarite win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Illueca win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 40%)
51′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 92–7–2
54′A goal for Illueca on 53′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Illueca 3–0 CDJ Tamarite
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 28–44–28 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+10' CDJ Tamarite win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
88′Illueca score on 87′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Illueca 4–0 CDJ Tamarite
FTFULL TIME Illueca 4–0 CDJ Tamarite
FTIllueca 4–0 CDJ Tamarite · CDJ Tamarite win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with CDJ Tamarite just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Illueca 36%, draw 26%, CDJ Tamarite 38%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Illueca v CDJ TamariteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Illueca win36%

Draw26%

CDJ Tamarite win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Illueca

CDJ Tamarite

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	CDJ Tamarite	7	−1	9
15	Illueca	7	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cdj tamarite winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make CDJ Tamarite a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Illueca v CDJ Tamarite~~1.42 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~15 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CDJ Tamarite win

Published at 36%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Illueca win	36%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
CDJ Tamarite win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Illueca or draw	62%	–	–
Illueca clean sheet	24%	–	–
CDJ Tamarite clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.5 7.9 6.0 2.9 1 7.8 11.9 8.2 4.0 2 5.7 8.0 5.7 2.8 3 2.7 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Illueca down, CDJ Tamarite across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Illueca at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). CDJ Tamarite away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Illueca, 1.45 for CDJ Tamarite. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CDJ 0–1 ILL · ILL 1–3 CDJ · CDJ 2–2 ILL · ILL 5–3 CDJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 12 Sept

ILLUECA

LLWWDL0–3 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3

CDJ TAMARITE

WLWLLW3–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–5 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	7	+9	16
2	Ejea	7	+5	15
3	Brea	7	+7	14
4	Caspe	7	+4	12
5	Fraga	7	+4	12
6	Cuarte	7	+5	11
7	Épila	7	+3	11
8	Binéfar	7	+1	10
9	Huesca II	7	+1	10
10	La Almunia	7	0	10
11	Atlético Monzón	7	−4	10
12	CDJ Tamarite	7	−1	9
13	Almudévar	7	+1	8
14	Andorra CF	7	−4	8
15	Illueca	7	−5	7
16	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
17	Robres	7	−10	2
18	Belchite 97	7	−13	2