Fraga v Épila prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Fraga 0–0 Épila ÉPILA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Épila win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.710

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Épila win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Épila 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 34–31–35
1′KICK-OFF Fraga v Épila
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Épila win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Fraga 0–0 Épila
46′SECOND HALF Fraga 0–0 Épila
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Épila win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
56′We said Épila at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–53–23
65′We said Épila at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–61–19
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Épila win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
74′We said Épila at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–72–14
81′We said Épila at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Épila win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
88′We said Épila at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–91–4
FTFULL TIME Fraga 0–0 Épila
FTFraga 0–0 Épila · Épila win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Épila just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fraga 34%, draw 31%, Épila 35%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Fraga v ÉpilaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fraga win34%

Draw31%

Épila win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fraga

Épila

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
6	Épila	6	+3	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · épila winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:51 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Épila a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fraga v Épila~~1.02 – 1.03

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Épila win

Published at 33%, 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fraga win	34%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Épila win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Fraga or draw	65%	–	–
Fraga clean sheet	36%	–	–
Épila clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 13.7%

0123450 13.7 12.8 6.8 2.4 1 12.6 13.6 6.8 2.4 2 6.7 6.7 3.5 3 2.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fraga down, Épila across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fraga at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Épila away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Fraga, 1.03 for Épila. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FRA 1–1 EPI · EPI 1–1 FRA · EPI 2–1 FRA · FRA 2–2 EPI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 5 Sept

FRAGA

WWDDLW2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

ÉPILA

WDWLLW2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	7	+9	16
2	Ejea	6	+7	15
3	Brea	6	+8	14
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
6	Épila	6	+3	10
7	Huesca II	7	+1	10
8	Atlético Monzón	6	−2	10
9	Caspe	6	+3	9
10	Almudévar	7	+1	8
11	Binéfar	6	−1	7
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	−11	2
18	Robres	6	−10	1