Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 › Fraga v Binéfar

Fraga v Binéfar

Fraga

2–0Full time

Binéfar

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Fraga 2–0 Binéfar FRAGA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fraga win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.558

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fraga win at 39%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Fraga 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–36
7′Little has changed for our model: Fraga 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–36
22′14′ and it is 1–0: Fraga have scored. 1–0 · 66–21–14
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
30′14′ and it is 1–0: Fraga have scored. 1–0 · 67–21–12
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
45′We said Fraga at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–9
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
45′HALF-TIME Fraga 1–0 Binéfar
46′SECOND HALF Fraga 1–0 Binéfar
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Fraga 2–0 Binéfar
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Fraga win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
84′⚽ GOAL · 14' Fraga 2–0 Binéfar
84′⚽ GOAL · 54' Fraga 2–0 Binéfar
87′⚽ GOAL · 14' Fraga 2–0 Binéfar
87′⚽ GOAL · 54' Fraga 2–0 Binéfar
FTFULL TIME Fraga 2–0 Binéfar
FTFraga 2–0 Binéfar · Fraga win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fraga win39%

Draw25%

Binéfar win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fraga winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Fraga a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fraga win	39%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Binéfar win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Fraga or draw	64%	–	–
Fraga clean sheet	24%	–	–
Binéfar clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.6 7.1 5.3 2.6 1 7.5 11.2 7.9 3.9 2 5.9 8.3 6.0 3.0 3 3.0 4.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fraga down, Binéfar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fraga at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Binéfar away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Fraga, 1.47 for Binéfar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BIN 3–1 FRA · FRA 2–2 BIN · FRA 0–0 BIN · BIN 2–2 FRA

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

FRAGA

LWWDDL1–5 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

BINÉFAR

LWLLDW3–4 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	5	+8	13
2	Ejea	5	+5	12
3	Brea	5	+7	11
4	Atlético Monzón	5	+1	10
5	Cuarte	5	+5	9
6	Caspe	5	+3	8
7	Fraga	5	+2	8
8	Binéfar	5	+1	7
9	Épila	5	0	7
10	La Almunia	5	−1	7
11	Almudévar	5	+1	6
12	CDJ Tamarite	5	−1	6
13	Huesca II	5	−1	6
14	Illueca	5	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	5	−3	4
16	Andorra CF	5	−6	4
17	Robres	5	−7	1
18	Belchite 97	5	−11	1