Épila v Atlético Monzón prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Épila 2–2 Atlético Monzón ÉPILA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Épila win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Épila are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Épila 40%, draw 29%, Atlético Monzón 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Épila v Atlético MonzónBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Épila win40%

Draw29%

Atlético Monzón win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Épila

Atlético Monzón

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Épila	7	+3	11
11	Atlético Monzón	7	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · épila winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Épila a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Épila v Atlético Monzón~~1.22 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Épila win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Épila win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Atlético Monzón win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Épila or draw	69%	–	–
Épila clean sheet	36%	–	–
Atlético Monzón clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.4 10.4 5.6 1 12.4 13.4 6.6 2.3 2 7.8 7.9 4.0 3 3.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Épila down, Atlético Monzón across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Épila at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atlético Monzón away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Épila, 1.03 for Atlético Monzón. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 1–0 EPI · EPI 0–1 ATL · EPI 2–0 ATL · ATL 3–1 EPI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 12 Sept

ÉPILA

DWLLWD0–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 0–0

ATLÉTICO MONZÓN

WDWWLL4–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	7	+9	16
2	Ejea	7	+5	15
3	Brea	7	+7	14
4	Caspe	7	+4	12
5	Fraga	7	+4	12
6	Cuarte	7	+5	11
7	Épila	7	+3	11
8	Binéfar	7	+1	10
9	Huesca II	7	+1	10
10	La Almunia	7	0	10
11	Atlético Monzón	7	−4	10
12	CDJ Tamarite	7	−1	9
13	Almudévar	7	+1	8
14	Andorra CF	7	−4	8
15	Illueca	7	−5	7
16	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
17	Robres	7	−10	2
18	Belchite 97	7	−13	2