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Ejea v CDJ Tamarite

Ejea

5–3Full time

CDJ Tamarite

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite EJEA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ejea win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.257

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ejea win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ejea 59% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–19
5′Little has changed for our model: Ejea 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–19
22′17′ and it is 2–1: CDJ Tamarite have scored. 2–1 · 81–13–5
28′Ejea find the net on 26′. 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
44′A goal for CDJ Tamarite on 30′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 82–14–4
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 95% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
45′A goal for CDJ Tamarite on 30′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 82–14–4
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 95% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
45′HALF-TIME Ejea 3–2 CDJ Tamarite
46′SECOND HALF Ejea 3–2 CDJ Tamarite
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Ejea win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ejea 4–2 CDJ Tamarite
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ejea 4–3 CDJ Tamarite
79′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ejea 4–3 CDJ Tamarite
79′⚽ GOAL · 8' Ejea 4–3 CDJ Tamarite
79′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ejea 4–3 CDJ Tamarite
79′⚽ GOAL · 26' Ejea 4–3 CDJ Tamarite
79′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ejea 4–3 CDJ Tamarite
79′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ejea 4–3 CDJ Tamarite
79′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ejea 4–3 CDJ Tamarite
82′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
82′⚽ GOAL · 8' Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
82′⚽ GOAL · 17' Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
82′⚽ GOAL · 26' Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
82′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
82′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
82′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
FTFULL TIME Ejea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite
FTEjea 5–3 CDJ Tamarite · Ejea win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ejea win59%

Draw22%

CDJ Tamarite win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ejea winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Ejea a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ejea win	59%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
CDJ Tamarite win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Ejea or draw	81%	–	–
Ejea clean sheet	38%	–	–
CDJ Tamarite clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 6.2 5.3 2.8 1 10.4 10.4 5.0 2 9.9 9.4 4.6 3 6.4 6.0 2.9 4 3.2 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ejea down, CDJ Tamarite across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ejea at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). CDJ Tamarite away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Ejea, 0.98 for CDJ Tamarite. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~EJE 3–1 CDJ · CDJ 1–1 EJE · EJE 5–0 CDJ · CDJ 2–1 EJE

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

EJEA

WLWWWW4–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

CDJ TAMARITE

LLWLWL0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	5	+8	13
2	Ejea	5	+5	12
3	Brea	5	+7	11
4	Atlético Monzón	5	+1	10
5	Cuarte	5	+5	9
6	Caspe	5	+3	8
7	Fraga	5	+2	8
8	Binéfar	5	+1	7
9	Épila	5	0	7
10	La Almunia	5	−1	7
11	Almudévar	5	+1	6
12	CDJ Tamarite	5	−1	6
13	Huesca II	5	−1	6
14	Illueca	5	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	5	−3	4
16	Andorra CF	5	−6	4
17	Robres	5	−7	1
18	Belchite 97	5	−11	1