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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 › Cuarte v Fraga

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Cuarte v Fraga

Cuarte
2–0Full time
Fraga

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
Cuarte 2–0 Fraga CUARTE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cuarte win55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.304

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cuarte win at 55%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Cuarte 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–27–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Cuarte v Fraga
  4. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Cuarte win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  5. 40′We said Cuarte at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–40–16
  6. 45′We said Cuarte at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
  7. 45′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 84–13–3
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Cuarte 1–0 Fraga
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Cuarte 1–0 Fraga
  10. 47′Cuarte find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
  11. 47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Cuarte 1–0 Fraga
  12. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Cuarte win: 55% at kick-off, 84% now
  13. 49′We said Cuarte at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Cuarte win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  15. 71′We said Cuarte at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  16. 82′We said Cuarte at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  17. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Cuarte win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  18. 97′A goal for Cuarte on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 97′We said Cuarte at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Cuarte 2–0 Fraga
  21. FTFULL TIME Cuarte 2–0 Fraga
  22. FTCuarte 2–0 Fraga · Cuarte win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cuarte are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cuarte 55%, draw 27%, Fraga 17%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Cuarte v FragaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

Cuarte win55%
Draw27%
Fraga win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cuarte

Fraga

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Fraga7+412
6Cuarte7+511

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cuarte winFirst published 18 Oct 03:48 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
55% The market–
Us55%

We make Cuarte a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Cuarte v Fraga1.50 – 0.71
Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 13 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 11 v 126 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 18 OCT 03:4824 OCT 15:15
Our probability · Cuarte win

Published at 56%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Cuarte win55%––
Draw27%––
Fraga win17%––
Over 2.5 goals38%––
Both teams to score39%––
Over 1.5 goals65%––
Over 3.5 goals18%––
Cuarte or draw83%––
Cuarte clean sheet50%––
Fraga clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.0%
0123450 11.9 7.5 2.8 1 16.0 11.9 4.1 2 12.1 8.4 3.0 3 6.1 4.2 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Cuarte down, Fraga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsFRA 3–1 CUA · CUA 2–1 FRA · CUA 2–2 FRA · FRA 1–0 CUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 13 Sept

CUARTE

WLLWDD5–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–2

FRAGA

WDDLWD3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Real Zaragoza II7+916
2Ejea7+515
3Brea7+714
4Caspe7+412
5Fraga7+412
6Cuarte7+511
7Épila7+311
8Binéfar7+110
9Huesca II7+110
10La Almunia7010
11Atlético Monzón7−410
12CDJ Tamarite7−19
13Almudévar7+18
14Andorra CF7−48
15Illueca7−57
16CD Sietamo7−36
17Robres7−102
18Belchite 977−132

The competition's standings before kick-off.