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Cuarte v Caspe

Cuarte

2–2Full time

Caspe

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Cuarte 2–2 Caspe CUARTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cuarte win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.760

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cuarte win at 49%.
1′KICK-OFF Cuarte v Caspe
2′Much as we predicted: Cuarte was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–31–20
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Cuarte win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Cuarte win 39%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Cuarte 0–1 Caspe
45′HALF-TIME Cuarte 0–1 Caspe
46′SECOND HALF Cuarte 0–1 Caspe
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Cuarte 1–1 Caspe
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Cuarte 1–2 Caspe
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Cuarte 2–2 Caspe
FTFULL TIME Cuarte 2–2 Caspe
FTCuarte 2–2 Caspe · Cuarte win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cuarte win49%

Draw31%

Caspe win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cuarte winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Cuarte a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cuarte win	49%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Caspe win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Cuarte or draw	80%	–	–
Cuarte clean sheet	52%	–	–
Caspe clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.3%

0123450 16.0 9.7 3.3 1 18.3 12.3 4.0 2 11.3 7.3 2.4 3 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cuarte down, Caspe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,481 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 1.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cuarte at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Caspe away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Cuarte, 0.65 for Caspe. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~CUA 2–1 CAS · CAS 1–1 CUA · CAS 1–1 CUA · CUA 1–0 CAS

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

CUARTE

LWWLLW0–1 · 2–0 · 5–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

CASPE

LWLDDW1–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	5	+8	13
2	Ejea	5	+5	12
3	Brea	5	+7	11
4	Atlético Monzón	5	+1	10
5	Cuarte	5	+5	9
6	Caspe	5	+3	8
7	Fraga	5	+2	8
8	Binéfar	5	+1	7
9	Épila	5	0	7
10	La Almunia	5	−1	7
11	Almudévar	5	+1	6
12	CDJ Tamarite	5	−1	6
13	Huesca II	5	−1	6
14	Illueca	5	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	5	−3	4
16	Andorra CF	5	−6	4
17	Robres	5	−7	1
18	Belchite 97	5	−11	1