Caspe v Brea prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Caspe 2–1 Brea CASPE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Caspe win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Caspe win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Caspe was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–31–24
1′KICK-OFF Caspe v Brea
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Caspe win 37%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Caspe win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME Caspe 0–0 Brea
46′We said Caspe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–47–20
46′SECOND HALF Caspe 0–0 Brea
55′We said Caspe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
62′A goal for Caspe on 60′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
62′We published Caspe at 45%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
62′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 84–14–2
62′⚽ GOAL · 60' Caspe 1–0 Brea
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Caspe win: 45% at kick-off, 84% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Caspe win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
63′We published Caspe at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Caspe win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
66′Brea score on 66′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 23–63–14
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Caspe 1–1 Brea
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Caspe win: 45% at kick-off, 23% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Caspe win 23%)
67′We said Caspe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–64–14
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Caspe win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
72′We said Caspe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–12
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Caspe win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
77′We said Caspe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–9
83′We said Caspe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Caspe win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
89′We said Caspe at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Caspe 2–1 Brea
FTCaspe 2–1 Brea · Caspe win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Caspe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Caspe 45%, draw 31%, Brea 24%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Caspe v BreaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Caspe win45%

Draw31%

Brea win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Caspe

Brea

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Brea	6	+8	14
9	Caspe	6	+3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caspe winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Caspe a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Caspe v Brea~~1.22 – 0.80

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 14~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Caspe win	45%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Brea win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Caspe or draw	76%	–	–
Caspe clean sheet	45%	–	–
Brea clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 14.2 10.3 4.3 1 15.6 13.0 5.1 2 9.7 7.6 3.1 3 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Caspe down, Brea across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Caspe at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Brea away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Caspe, 0.80 for Brea. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRE 0–0 CAS · CAS 0–2 BRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept

CASPE

WLDDWD3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2

BREA

DWDWWW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	7	+9	16
2	Ejea	6	+7	15
3	Brea	6	+8	14
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
6	Épila	6	+3	10
7	Huesca II	7	+1	10
8	Atlético Monzón	6	−2	10
9	Caspe	6	+3	9
10	Almudévar	7	+1	8
11	Binéfar	6	−1	7
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	−11	2
18	Robres	6	−10	1