Brea v Robres prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BreaDrawRobres

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Brea 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brea 51%, draw 26%, Robres 23%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Brea v RobresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Brea win51%

Draw26%

Robres win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brea

Robres

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Brea	7	+7	14
17	Robres	7	−10	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brea winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Brea a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brea v Robres~~1.60 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 2~~4 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brea win	51%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Robres win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Brea or draw	77%	–	–
Brea clean sheet	39%	–	–
Robres clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.5 7.1 3.7 1 11.9 12.0 5.6 2 9.7 9.1 4.4 3 5.2 4.9 2.4 4 2.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brea down, Robres across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,504 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Brea at home: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Robres away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Brea, 0.97 for Robres. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 12 Sept

BREA

WDWWWL3–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

ROBRES

LDLLLD3–4 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	8	+13	19
2	Ejea	7	+5	15
3	Cuarte	8	+7	14
4	Brea	7	+7	14
5	La Almunia	8	+2	13
6	Caspe	7	+4	12
7	Épila	8	+3	12
8	Fraga	8	+2	12
9	Atlético Monzón	8	−4	11
10	Binéfar	7	+1	10
11	Huesca II	7	+1	10
12	Illueca	8	−1	10
13	CDJ Tamarite	8	−5	9
14	Almudévar	8	−3	8
15	Andorra CF	7	−4	8
16	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
17	Robres	7	−10	2
18	Belchite 97	8	−15	2