Binéfar v Huesca II prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BinéfarDrawHuesca II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Binéfar 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Binéfar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Binéfar 42%, draw 26%, Huesca II 32%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Binéfar v Huesca IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Binéfar win42%

Draw26%

Huesca II win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Binéfar

Huesca II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Binéfar	7	+1	10
9	Huesca II	7	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · binéfar winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Binéfar a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Binéfar v Huesca II~~1.54 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Binéfar win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Huesca II win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Binéfar or draw	68%	–	–
Binéfar clean sheet	28%	–	–
Huesca II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 7.3 5.0 2.2 1 8.7 12.0 7.4 3.2 2 6.9 8.7 5.6 2.5 3 3.6 4.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Binéfar down, Huesca II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,499 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Binéfar at home: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Huesca II away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Binéfar, 1.30 for Huesca II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BIN 3–0 HUE · HUE 3–3 BIN · HUE 2–1 BIN · BIN 4–2 HUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 13 Sept

BINÉFAR

LLDWLW2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–1

HUESCA II

WDDLDW1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	7	+9	16
2	Ejea	7	+5	15
3	Brea	7	+7	14
4	Caspe	7	+4	12
5	Fraga	7	+4	12
6	Cuarte	7	+5	11
7	Épila	7	+3	11
8	Binéfar	7	+1	10
9	Huesca II	7	+1	10
10	La Almunia	7	0	10
11	Atlético Monzón	7	−4	10
12	CDJ Tamarite	7	−1	9
13	Almudévar	7	+1	8
14	Andorra CF	7	−4	8
15	Illueca	7	−5	7
16	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
17	Robres	7	−10	2
18	Belchite 97	7	−13	2