Atlético Monzón v Binéfar prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Atlético Monzón 1–3 Binéfar ATLÉTICO MONZÓN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético Monzón win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.957

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético Monzón win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Atlético Monzón 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–23
1′KICK-OFF Atlético Monzón v Binéfar
6′Binéfar find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 33–22–45
6′We said Atlético Monzón at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–22–45
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Atlético Monzón 0–1 Binéfar
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Atlético Monzón win: 56% at kick-off, 33% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Binéfar win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Atlético Monzón win 33%)
11′A goal for Binéfar on 11′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 15–16–69
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Atlético Monzón 0–2 Binéfar
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Atlético Monzón win: 56% at kick-off, 15% now
12′We said Atlético Monzón at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–2 · 15–16–69
13′We said Atlético Monzón at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–2 · 14–16–69
31′We said Atlético Monzón at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–15–76
43′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–2 · 6–13–81
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Atlético Monzón win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
45′HALF-TIME Atlético Monzón 0–2 Binéfar
46′SECOND HALF Atlético Monzón 0–2 Binéfar
51′We said Atlético Monzón at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
54′Atlético Monzón score on 54′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 14–26–59
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Atlético Monzón 1–2 Binéfar
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Atlético Monzón win: 56% at kick-off, 14% now
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Atlético Monzón win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
90′Binéfar find the net on 90′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Atlético Monzón 1–3 Binéfar
91′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Atlético Monzón 1–3 Binéfar
FTAtlético Monzón 1–3 Binéfar · Atlético Monzón win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlético Monzón are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético Monzón 56%, draw 22%, Binéfar 23%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Atlético Monzón v BinéfarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlético Monzón win56%

Draw22%

Binéfar win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético Monzón

Binéfar

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Atlético Monzón	6	−2	10
11	Binéfar	6	−1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atlético monzón winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Atlético Monzón a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético Monzón v Binéfar~~2.11 – 1.27

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~8 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético Monzón win	56%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Binéfar win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Atlético Monzón or draw	77%	–	–
Atlético Monzón clean sheet	29%	–	–
Binéfar clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.2 4.3 2.9 1 7.1 9.5 5.7 2.4 2 7.5 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 5.2 6.4 4.0 4 2.8 3.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético Monzón down, Binéfar across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlético Monzón at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Binéfar away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Atlético Monzón, 1.27 for Binéfar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BIN 1–2 ATL · ATL 4–0 BIN · ATL 1–0 BIN · BIN 2–5 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept

ATLÉTICO MONZÓN

LWDWWL0–3 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

BINÉFAR

WLLDWL4–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	7	+9	16
2	Ejea	6	+7	15
3	Brea	6	+8	14
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
6	Épila	6	+3	10
7	Huesca II	7	+1	10
8	Atlético Monzón	6	−2	10
9	Caspe	6	+3	9
10	Almudévar	7	+1	8
11	Binéfar	6	−1	7
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	−11	2
18	Robres	6	−10	1