Andorra CF v Illueca prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Andorra CF 3–1 Illueca ANDORRA CF WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Andorra CF win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Andorra CF are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Andorra CF 44%, draw 28%, Illueca 28%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Andorra CF v IlluecaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Andorra CF win44%

Draw28%

Illueca win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Andorra CF

Illueca

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · andorra cf winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Andorra CF a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Andorra CF v Illueca~~1.35 – 1.03

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~16 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Andorra CF win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Illueca win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Andorra CF or draw	72%	–	–
Andorra CF clean sheet	36%	–	–
Illueca clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.0 9.1 4.9 1 12.1 13.0 6.5 2.3 2 8.4 8.4 4.3 3 3.8 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Andorra CF down, Illueca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,491 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Andorra CF at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Illueca away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Andorra CF, 1.03 for Illueca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AND 1–1 ILL · ILL 0–0 AND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept

ANDORRA CF

LDWLLD2–4 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–0

ILLUECA

LLLWWD0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	7	+9	16
2	Ejea	6	+7	15
3	Brea	6	+8	14
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
6	Épila	6	+3	10
7	Huesca II	7	+1	10
8	Atlético Monzón	6	−2	10
9	Caspe	6	+3	9
10	Almudévar	7	+1	8
11	Binéfar	6	−1	7
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	7	−3	6
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	−11	2
18	Robres	6	−10	1