Almudévar v CD Sietamo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Almudévar 0–0 CD Sietamo ALMUDÉVAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almudévar win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.790

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almudévar win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Almudévar 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Almudévar v CD Sietamo
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Almudévar win 35%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Almudévar win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Almudévar 0–0 CD Sietamo
46′SECOND HALF Almudévar 0–0 CD Sietamo
51′We said Almudévar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–46–22
57′We said Almudévar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
66′We said Almudévar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Almudévar win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
73′We said Almudévar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
79′We said Almudévar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Almudévar win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
83′We said Almudévar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
90′We said Almudévar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Almudévar win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Almudévar 0–0 CD Sietamo
FTAlmudévar 0–0 CD Sietamo · Almudévar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Almudévar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Almudévar 44%, draw 28%, CD Sietamo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Almudévar v CD SietamoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Almudévar win44%

Draw28%

CD Sietamo win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 17 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Almudévar

CD Sietamo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Almudévar	6	+1	7
15	CD Sietamo	6	−3	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · almudévar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Almudévar a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Almudévar v CD Sietamo~~1.36 – 1.00

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~9 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almudévar win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
CD Sietamo win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Almudévar or draw	72%	–	–
Almudévar clean sheet	37%	–	–
CD Sietamo clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.3 9.2 4.8 1 12.4 12.9 6.2 2.2 2 8.6 8.4 4.2 3 4.0 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almudévar down, CD Sietamo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,490 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Almudévar at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). CD Sietamo away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Almudévar, 1.00 for CD Sietamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 this season · since 6 Sept

ALMUDÉVAR

WLWLLD1–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

CD SIETAMO

LLDLWD0–2 · 2–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Real Zaragoza II	6	+11	16
2	Ejea	6	+7	15
3	Brea	6	+8	14
4	Fraga	6	+4	11
5	Cuarte	6	+5	10
6	Épila	6	+3	10
7	Atlético Monzón	6	−2	10
8	Caspe	6	+3	9
9	Almudévar	6	+1	7
10	Binéfar	6	−1	7
11	Huesca II	6	−1	7
12	La Almunia	6	−2	7
13	Illueca	6	−3	7
14	CDJ Tamarite	6	−3	6
15	CD Sietamo	6	−3	5
16	Andorra CF	6	−6	5
17	Belchite 97	6	−11	2
18	Robres	6	−10	1