Yagüe v San Marcial prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Yagüe 0–3 San Marcial YAGÜE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yagüe win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.729

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yagüe win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Yagüe 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Yagüe v San Marcial
28′San Marcial find the net on 28′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–61
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Yagüe 0–1 San Marcial
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Yagüe win: 43% at kick-off, 16% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' San Marcial win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Yagüe win 16%)
29′We said Yagüe at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–61
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 16–23–61
35′We said Yagüe at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Yagüe win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Yagüe 0–1 San Marcial
46′SECOND HALF Yagüe 0–1 San Marcial
49′A goal for San Marcial on 48′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
49′We said Yagüe at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Yagüe 0–2 San Marcial
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Yagüe win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
94′San Marcial score on 90′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
94′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Yagüe 0–3 San Marcial
FTFULL TIME Yagüe 0–3 San Marcial
FTYagüe 0–3 San Marcial · Yagüe win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yagüe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yagüe 43%, draw 26%, San Marcial 31%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Yagüe v San MarcialBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yagüe win43%

Draw26%

San Marcial win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yagüe

San Marcial

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Last match: 11 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	San Marcial	6	+2	9
12	Yagüe	6	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yagüe winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Yagüe a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yagüe v San Marcial~~1.57 – 1.29

~~Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 9~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yagüe win

Published at 44%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yagüe win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
San Marcial win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Yagüe or draw	69%	–	–
Yagüe clean sheet	28%	–	–
San Marcial clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.5 6.9 4.8 2.1 1 8.5 12.0 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.7 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yagüe down, San Marcial across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,458 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yagüe at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). San Marcial away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Yagüe, 1.29 for San Marcial. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 YAG · YAG 1–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 5 Sept

YAGÜE

LLWLWL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3

SAN MARCIAL

WDDLDW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Berceo	6	+13	15
2	Alfaro	6	+3	13
3	Haro Deportivo	6	+2	13
4	Calahorra	6	+11	12
5	La Calzada	6	+1	12
6	Pradejón	6	+2	10
7	Varea	6	+2	10
8	San Marcial	6	+2	9
9	Agoncillo	6	+3	8
10	Anguiano	6	+2	8
11	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
12	Yagüe	6	−6	6
13	Cenicero	6	−3	5
14	Comillas	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	6	−9	5
16	Vianés	6	−1	4
17	River Ebro	6	−9	4
18	Casalarreina	6	−9	3