Vianés v Haro Deportivo prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VianésDrawHaro Deportivo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Haro Deportivo 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Haro Deportivo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vianés 34%, draw 27%, Haro Deportivo 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Vianés v Haro DeportivoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Vianés win34%

Draw27%

Haro Deportivo win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vianés

Haro Deportivo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · haro deportivo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Haro Deportivo a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vianés v Haro Deportivo~~1.28 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 16~~16 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vianés win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Haro Deportivo win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Vianés or draw	61%	–	–
Vianés clean sheet	25%	–	–
Haro Deportivo clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.8 9.2 6.7 3.2 1 8.5 12.6 8.3 3.9 2 5.7 7.7 5.3 2.5 3 2.5 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vianés down, Haro Deportivo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vianés at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Haro Deportivo away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Vianés, 1.39 for Haro Deportivo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAR 0–2 VIA · VIA 0–2 HAR · VIA 1–0 HAR · HAR 1–1 VIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept

VIANÉS

LLDLWL1–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 0–1

HARO DEPORTIVO

WWWWLW4–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	7	+6	16
2	Alfaro	7	+4	16
3	Berceo	7	+11	15
4	La Calzada	7	+2	15
5	Pradejón	7	+3	13
6	Varea	7	+3	13
7	Calahorra	7	+8	12
8	San Marcial	7	+5	12
9	Anguiano	7	+5	11
10	Oyonesa	7	+1	11
11	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	7	−4	5
15	Calasancio	7	−10	5
16	Vianés	7	−2	4
17	River Ebro	7	−10	4
18	Casalarreina	7	−13	3