Vianés v Calasancio prediction · Tercera División RFEF

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Vianés 4–0 Calasancio VIANÉS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vianés win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.515

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Vianés win42%

Draw26%

Calasancio win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Vianés

Calasancio

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Calasancio	5	−5	5
18	Vianés	5	−5	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vianés winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Vianés a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vianés win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Calasancio win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Vianés or draw	68%	–	–
Vianés clean sheet	28%	–	–
Calasancio clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.0 7.2 5.1 2.3 1 8.5 12.0 7.4 3.3 2 6.8 8.5 5.5 2.5 3 3.5 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vianés down, Calasancio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,452 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Vianés at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Calasancio away: 1.50 scored, 4.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Vianés, 1.31 for Calasancio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

VIANÉS

WLLLDL2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2

CALASANCIO

DLDLW2–2 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	5	+6	13
2	Berceo	5	+9	12
3	La Calzada	5	+5	12
4	Alfaro	5	+2	10
5	Pradejón	6	+2	10
6	Calahorra	5	+7	9
7	Agoncillo	5	+4	8
8	Anguiano	6	+2	8
9	Oyonesa	6	−1	8
10	Varea	5	+1	7
11	San Marcial	5	0	6
12	Yagüe	6	−6	6
13	Cenicero	5	−1	5
14	Comillas	6	−3	5
15	Calasancio	5	−5	5
16	River Ebro	6	−9	4
17	Casalarreina	5	−8	3
18	Vianés	5	−5	1