Varea v Alfaro prediction · Tercera División RFEF

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VareaDrawAlfaro

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Varea 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Varea are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Varea 43%, draw 29%, Alfaro 29%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Varea v AlfaroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Varea win43%

Draw29%

Alfaro win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 16 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Varea

Alfaro

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Alfaro	7	+4	16
6	Varea	7	+3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varea winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Varea a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Varea v Alfaro~~1.30 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 16~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varea win	43%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Alfaro win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Varea or draw	71%	–	–
Varea clean sheet	37%	–	–
Alfaro clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.8 9.6 5.2 1 12.2 13.1 6.4 2.2 2 8.3 8.2 4.1 3 3.7 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Varea down, Alfaro across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,467 Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varea at home: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Alfaro away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Varea, 1.02 for Alfaro. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALF 1–1 VAR · VAR 0–2 ALF · VAR 0–3 ALF · ALF 1–1 VAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 this season · since 13 Sept

VAREA

DDWDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

ALFARO

WLWWWW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haro Deportivo	7	+6	16
2	Alfaro	7	+4	16
3	Berceo	7	+11	15
4	La Calzada	7	+2	15
5	Pradejón	7	+3	13
6	Varea	7	+3	13
7	Calahorra	7	+8	12
8	San Marcial	7	+5	12
9	Anguiano	7	+5	11
10	Oyonesa	7	+1	11
11	Agoncillo	7	+3	9
12	Comillas	7	−3	6
13	Yagüe	7	−9	6
14	Cenicero	7	−4	5
15	Calasancio	7	−10	5
16	Vianés	7	−2	4
17	River Ebro	7	−10	4
18	Casalarreina	7	−13	3